One of the easiest ways to tell whether or not a player is going to succeed in the NBA is by comparing them to other players within their same archetype at a similar stage in their career. As a sports agency, it is our job not just to express what we believe a player’s value to be, but to prove it. By providing an explanation of our proof to both NBA decision makers and those in the media, we can maximize opportunities for our clients while building a positive narrative around their game. Today, we’re going to show how Dillan Shaw stacks up to some of the most successful NBA players in his mold after their respective freshman seasons.
Trey Murphy III went 17th overall in the 2021 NBA Draft, and he’s developed into one of the NBA’s premier 3-and-D wings. As a result, he earned a 4-year, $112,000,000 contract after the end of his rookie deal with the Pelicans. Murphy is the consummate floor and ceiling raiser. He makes everyone around him better because he provides valuable spacing, makes great decisions, has high-level athleticism, and can defend a variety of positions. There isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t benefit from having a player like Trey Murphy III, so the Pelicans didn’t think twice before offering him a gigantic contract. Dillan Shaw is a considerably better prospect at the same age.
Murphy shot the ball a hair better than Shaw as a freshman, going 42.1% from three vs. Shaw’s 41.6% mark. Still, that’s a negligible difference in the grand scheme of things, and both percentages are outstanding marks for a young player with their measurements and physical tools. But here’s the thing—Shaw is better everywhere else. One knock on Shaw is that he doesn’t apply a lot of pressure to the rim. Still, he took double the amount of halfcourt shots at the basket (14 vs. 7) than Murphy. Plus, he converted on 71.4% of his looks there against Murphy’s 57.1% mark. He’s already better at getting to the basket and finishing than Murphy at the same point in their careers. Shaw is also ahead as a playmaker, both in terms of his volume and his reliability as a decision maker. His assist rate of 10.0% tops Murphy’s 6.9%, and his assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.5 blows Murphy’s 1.0 figure out of the water. Shaw is generating more high-quality shots for his team while taking better care of the ball than Murphy did as a freshman.
Then, there’s the dirty work. One key separator for Shaw relative to most marksmen is that he is a big-time rebounder. His 6.2% offensive rebound rate (ORB%) and 15.9% defensive rebound rate (DRB%) trounce Murphy’s 3.0 ORB% and 10.6 DRB%. Shaw is also a more potent defensive playmaker. While their block rates are close (Shaw had a 2.4 BLK%, while Murphy posted a 2.6 BLK%), Shaw’s 2.0 % steal rate (STL%) wipes the floor with Murphy’s 1.3 STL%. This is incredibly important for two reasons. For one, steal rate tends to be one of the most reliably scalable statistics, meaning that players who reliably generate steals in college tend to continue to do so at the NBA level. Secondly, steals are live-ball turnovers, and the most efficient time to score is early in the shot clock. So, when a player gets a steal, they create a transition opportunity for their team, which leads to the highest percentage shots available throughout the course of an NBA game.
Trey Murphy III was, and is, a great three-point shooter. So is Dillan Shaw. The difference between the two is that Shaw is a far more valuable contributor to “the possession battle.” The margins between the NBA’s top offenses and defenses are razor thin, so oftentimes, the best way for a team to ensure victory is by being the team that has the most possessions in a given contest. Shaw’s ability to generate “extra possessions” for his team on the offensive glass and through steals, while limiting his turnovers and ending possessions on the defensive glass, gives him a clear edge over Trey Murphy III as a prospect.
Josh Hart has carved out a long, successful NBA career. He was the 30th overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, he’s an NBA Champion, and after this season, he will have grossed over $105,446,544 in career earnings. A big part of Josh Hart’s success has been that he impacts the game in such a wide variety of ways. He’s a trustworthy decision maker, a hard-nosed defender, and an outstanding rebounder for a wing. What makes Dillan Shaw all the more appealing in light of Josh Hart’s success is that he has many of the same traits while being a more consistent, dependable shooter.
A big part of the sell with Josh Hart is the oversized impact he makes on the boards. While his unbelievable 10.2 ORB% as a freshman tops Shaw’s still-great 6.2 ORB%, it’s important to take context into account. Hart operated inside the arc with greater frequency, as only 47.7% of his shot attempts were three-pointers, while threes accounted for 61.6% of the shots that Dillan Shaw took. Meanwhile, Shaw outperformed Hart on the other end of the floor, with his 15.9 DRB% topping Hart’s 13.7 DRB%. In fact, Hart ended his college career with a 15.7 DRB%, a mark that trails what Shaw produced during his inaugural campaign. The defensive difference doesn’t stop there, either, as Shaw beat out Hart in terms of both steal rate (2.0 vs. 1.5) and block rate (2.4 vs. 1.4) despite playing within a more conservative scheme that’s less conducive to “action plays.” Shaw also outclassed Hart at the point-of-attack, allowing fewer points per possession in isolation (0.556 vs. 0.724) and ball screens (0.688 vs. 0.722).
Then, there’s the offensive side of the coin. While Hart’s 1.6 assist-to-turnover mark squeaks past Shaw’s 1.5, Shaw’s playmaking volume was greater, as he had a 10.0 AST% relative to Hart’s 8.1%, making that difference negligible. Then, there’s the shooting issue. As hard as Josh Hart has been to play completely off the floor, he’s still a player that defenses feel comfortable ignoring from beyond the arc, which has been a massive detriment to his teams at times. He was a 31.7% three-point shooter on moderate volume as a freshman, whereas Shaw is already a knockdown guy, going 41.6% from deep on a greater number of attempts per 100 possessions. Plus, Shaw is doing it on a tough shot diet. Only 35% of his catch-and-shoot three-pointers this past season were unguarded. Meanwhile, NBA teams are more than content to let Hart lob up uncontested shots from long range.
Josh Hart has established himself as an exceptionally valuable NBA player because he does the dirty work well and he doesn’t make many mistakes. Dillan Shaw is already doing the dirty work just as well, if not better, while similarly playing a high feel style. The difference is that a defense can’t ignore Dillan Shaw from beyond the arc, which will allow him to make a greater impact on the offensive end.
Mikal Bridges was a teammate of Josh Hart back at Villanova, and they’ve since joined forces again in the NBA, winning a championship together with the Knicks this past season. Bridges was the 10th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, he made an NBA All-Defense team in 2022, and if he picks up his player option after the 2028-2029 season, he’ll be sitting at $258,853,053 in career earnings. Bridges is another one of the NBA’s elite three-and-D players, but with a bit more on-ball juice than others in that archetype.
Simply looking at the stat sheet, one could argue that Bridges had a defensive edge over Dillan Shaw at the same point in their careers. His 3.6 STL% as a freshman topped the 2.0 STL% that Shaw posted this past year. A more nuanced approach, though, would consider that there are schematic factors at play. Villanova played in a far more aggressive scheme than St. Mary’s did this past year. As a whole, Bridges’ Villanova team ranked 70th in steals per game, whereas Shaw’s St. Mary’s squad finished 297th. Shaw was not operating within a system that enabled or encouraged him to make as many plays on the ball. And just like in the case of Josh Hart, Shaw was more effective than Bridges at guarding the ball in both pick-and-rolls (0.688 points per possession (PPP) vs. Bridges’ 0.750) and isolation (0.556 PPP vs. 0.727). Plus, Shaw was a greater presence on the glass, with superior rebounding rates on both ends of the floor (6.2 ORB% vs. Bridges’ 5.7 ORB%, 15.9 DRB% vs. Bridges’ 12.5 DRB%).
Offensively, Bridges struggled from three as a freshman, hitting only 29.9% of his triples. While he eventually finished his college career as a 40% three-point shooter, Shaw is already at 41.6%. Shaw also edged out Bridges in terms of assist rate (10.0 to 7.5) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.5 to 1.44).
The appeal of Mikal Bridges as a prospect was his two-way impact, and a similar outcome needs to be in consideration for Dillan Shaw. While Bridges generated more steals, the context in which the two played needs to be taken into account. Beyond that, Shaw is currently ahead of freshman year Bridges as a shooter, rebounder, and playmaker.
Cam Johnson has put together a tremendous NBA career, consistently starting for high-level teams from nearly the instant he stepped foot into the league. Again, he’s one of those players that every NBA team wants, because he shoots the ball well, has good positional size, makes good decisions, and holds his own on the defensive end. He makes life easier for his team without requiring any accommodations because of his well-rounded skill set. Johson was the 11th overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft despite concerns about his age, as he was already 23 years old on draft night. Since then, he’s earned $86,403,910 as an NBA player, with another $22,500,000 coming his way this season. Dillan Shaw is miles ahead of where Cam Johnson was at the same point in their career.
For this exercise, we’ll actually be looking at Cam Johnson’s second college season, as his first year at Pittsburgh was cut short due to a shoulder injury. Still, he was no match for what Dillan Shaw brought to the table as a college rookie. Shaw shot a higher percentage both from three (41.6% vs. 37.5%) and at the rim (71.4% vs. 50%). He generated more assists (10.0 AST% vs. Johnson’s 8.2 AST%) while registering a better assist-to-turnover ratio (1.5 to Johnson’s 1.08). Shaw’s offensive rebound rate, defensive rebound rate, steal rate, and block rate all topped Johnson’s across the board.
Cameron Johnson has always been a valued, in-demand player at the NBA level, and Dillan Shaw is outpacing his early-college production by every metric. While Johnson did blossom as a shooter in the ensuing seasons, that doesn’t make up for the fact that Shaw is ahead of him in the areas where it’s harder to gain ground, like rebounding, processing, athleticism, and defensive production. The lessons learned from Cam Johnson’s success as a lottery pick need to be applied to how front offices evaluate Dillan Shaw.